Republican partisans naturally will be all smiles Tuesday night if their party’s Senate candidates fare well in the midterm elections, as is expected. But there’s reason to doubt that the GOP prospects for the 2016 presidential  election will suddenly have become especially rosy.


Nate Cohn EXPLAINS:


If the night ends with tight races in Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Georgia, as the polls suggest, then the results will not be as great for Republicans as many analysts will surely proclaim.


Even if the Republicans win these states, which would all but ensure Senate control, it will probably be mostly because of low midterm turnout among Democratic-leaning young and nonwhite voters. The implication would be that Republican Senate candidates did not win many voters who supported President Obama in 2012. And it would suggest that Republicans have made little progress in attracting voters they would need to take back the White House.


If there were a time when the Republicans ought to be making inroads into the Obama coalition, this should be it…


If Republicans cannot maintain their exceptional margins among Southern white voters in the post-Obama era, their path to victory will get very narrow in states like Georgia and Florida. In both, the white share of the electorate has dropped by more than 10 percentage points since 2000.


 


Republican partisans naturally will be all smiles Tuesday night if their party’s Senate candidates fare well in the midterm elections, as is expected. But there’s reason to doubt that the GOP prospects for the 2016 presidential  election will suddenly have become especially rosy.

Nate Cohn EXPLAINS:

If the night ends with tight races in Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Georgia, as the polls suggest, then the results will not be as great for Republicans as many analysts will surely proclaim.

Even if the Republicans win these states, which would all but ensure Senate control, it will probably be mostly because of low midterm turnout among Democratic-leaning young and nonwhite voters. The implication would be that Republican Senate candidates did not win many voters who supported President Obama in 2012. And it would suggest that Republicans have made little progress in attracting voters they would need to take back the White House.

If there were a time when the Republicans ought to be making inroads into the Obama coalition, this should be it…

If Republicans cannot maintain their exceptional margins among Southern white voters in the post-Obama era, their path to victory will get very narrow in states like Georgia and Florida. In both, the white share of the electorate has dropped by more than 10 percentage points since 2000.