What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? The Impressive Markets... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)
Good Morning, and Happy Expiration Friday! US futures are jumping higher, led by a 1% pop in the Russell. The market started to get legs early this AM as Draghi was quite dovish in a speech overnight, but futures jumped at 5:30amET as China cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years – surprising the street. Right now the DAX is up 2% and thru the 200dma in very heavy volume as Materials and Industrials leap, and peripheral banks are up 2.5%+ as PIIGS yields collapse. Most Asian markets had a great session overnight, impressive since they closed before the China Cut. India’s Sensex closed at another record, while Shanghai popped 1% playing catch up from the week’s underperformance. Japan action was muted, as the Yen popped higher when Japan’s finance minister said the currency had fallen too fast over the past week – but Abe dissolving the lower house helped the Nikkei mitigate most losses. South Korean markets liked the stronger Yen, as KOSPI bounced 40bp as Technology rallied in the region. The standout loser was Aussie, weighed down by Industrials and Miners.
European yields are all lower, with Germany’s 10YY off 2bp and nearing the recent lows, as Draghi’s Remarks spur hopes ECB is nearing sovereign bond buying program. The US 10YY is up small and nearing 2.36% where it has been rejected several times this week. Some wild moves in FX, as the Dovish Draghi hits euro near the month’s lows, while the $/Y is slowly rallying back from the Japanese Fin Min smackdown overnight. The surprise Chinese cut has sparked a huge rally in Commodity Currencies - A$, NZ$ and C$ all jumped. Despite the DXY leaping over 88 to test recent highs, we have a strong bid in most commodities. China has Copper up 1.4%, but more importantly sparked a 2% rally in Crude Oil. The weakest commodity is Natty Gas, which has seen a 10% move this week – it is off nearly 3% in anticipation of warmer weather in the USA.
We have a pretty light catalyst calendar today (considering what happened overnight) – We do have Options Expiry (Index Open, Singles Close) – at 10am there is a Senate Subcomittee Hearing on NY Fed and "Regulatory Capture", at 11am we get the Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (World Series Impact?), Energy players will be looking for the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1 – While at 3:30 we get the “Commitment of Traders” data. At some point after the EU close, Fitch is updating on Greece, DBRS on Portugal
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