What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? The Upcoming FX Moving Headlines... (DIA, SPY, SPX, QQQ)
JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has a roundup of this morning's trader buzz:
Good Morning! US Futures are flat, and have been trading in a relatively tight range overnight. Europe having a green day ahead of the ECB tomorrow, Miners are seeing some covering, while Banks are enjoying Italian Bonds hitting new all-time highs. DAX is up 20bp as it continues to test unch on the day and bouncing – but Volumes are quieting down. The MICEX is green again and the Ruble a slight bid as Oil stabilizes. Asia had a very strong day, with the exception of Hong Kong, where protest angst hit Hang Seng for 1%. Shanghai hit a fresh 3Y high as investors build in more easing from PBoC, Nikkei up 30bp to 7Y highs as Yen has fallen to 2007 Lows, and Aussie added 70bp as the resource stocks saw covering down under.
The 10Y is flat, with yields testing 2.3% in the overnight as several catalysts line up against Bonds (Shutdown Deal, Ukraine Truce, Issuance, Hawkspeak). The DXY is higher, as the $/Y hits 119.50 ahead of heavy FX moving headlines today (ADP Jobs, Beige Book, 2 biggest FOMC Hawks speaking). This is a headwind for commodities but WTI is barely green while Brent falls off 30bp. Natty Gas is off 1.5% as the Front Page of Weather.com says – “Bad News for Winter Lovers”. Metals are coming for sale, with Silver diving red the last few minutes, while Gold is barely green, struggling to stay upside $1200.
We have heavy Scheduled Catalysts today: ADP Employment #s at 8:15; Nonfarm Productivity at 8:30; Markit US Services at 9:45; 10 brings us the Canadian Interest rate decision (no change), as well as ISM Services and the Online Help-Wanted Index. 10:30 we get DOE data for Crude, and at 12:30 Fed's Plosser (Hawk) Speaks on the Economic Outlook, at 2 we get the Fed’s Beige Book as well as a speech from Fed's Brainard (Dove) Speaks (Financial Stability). At some point today we get Brazil’s Interest rate decision (50bp Hike), and tonight Fed's Fisher (hawk) Addresses the Dallas Business Club
- The US Oil Industry Intends To Play The Saudis' Game Of Chicken
- China Looks Bad, Europe Looks Worse
- US Mortgage Applications Plunge